This is what i get for going away for a while....

I don't end up checking my blog. Anyways, someone asked for the relevant studies and articles regarding the effect of oil drilling on the price of gas.

Turns out my 10 cents was actually a bit generous...

First off, here is the abstract from a study, commissioned by Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), run thru the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress:

"The recent run-up in the price of crude oil has prompted new calls for the Federal government to increase its petroleum production by allowing exploration and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) along the northern coast of Alaska. While there is a strong incentive to provide much needed relief to American families who are currently struggling with high gasoline prices, analysis of ANWR’s projected contribution to crude oil markets suggests that relief will be neither substantial nor timely in its effect. Based on Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections of the effect of ANWR on crude oil prices, we estimate that opening up ANWR will reduce gasoline prices by just one cent, starting in 2018." (bolding mine)

And HERE is the link to the study itself. Now true, thats just ANWR. So what about the off-shore drilling itself?

That can be found HERE, a study regarding the impact of drilling on the so called "Lower 48 Federal Outer Continental Shelf" (fun name, huh?)
important 'graph:

"Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant. ... In 2030, the OCS access case projects a decrease of $0.13 in the average wellhead price of natural gas (2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet), a decrease of 250 billion cubic feet in imports of liquefied natural gas, and an increase of 360 billion cubic feet in natural gas consumption relative to the reference case projections. In addition, despite the increase in production from previously restricted areas after 2012, total natural gas production from the lower 48 OCS is projected generally to decline after 2020." (again, bolding mine)

What people miss when talking about drilling is that its not like we get to keep all the oil we drill. it goes into the international market, where it becomes the proverbial drop in the ocean. We're talking 20 years, and around 10 cents difference in the price of gas.

We're in a hole. And when you're in a hole with a shovel, the first thing you do is stop digging. (coincidence, actually, that the metaphor fits so well...)

So whoever you were who commented to my last post...there ya go.

~M