a pair of pieces

The One in Kentucky asked for these, and i realised that i never posted these online. So i figure i'd post 'em, and ya'll can make fun of me for it =P

they're meant as bookends, fyi

"To Fall"

The sky, like lips, opens wide
to take our breath
and rain down its promise:
a kind of weeping kindness
in which the heat is rent.

A little hope is found; rebounds,
resounding in the dark and empty hall,
filled with trunks and unhung lights.
We stand - tiny taped off boxes mark the spaces.
We stand - tiny, empty, taped up boxes.

A flash of light, like rain laid out
in words upon a novel.
We fall: to feel the breeze.

No more. We shall unlock the door.
We shall not be afraid



"The Breeze Ends"

The sky, as lips, closes again
reclaiming its bounty and promise.
No more the storm, again the dry.
There is peace in rain, a great release
that sweeps away the pieces of sand
that play in little boxes.

So long it took, so long.
The rain still in the air, and the ground
had yet to dry.

But now the rooftops shimmer
as forgotten, secret places -
more the one than the others.
The heat returns - no longer
rent by rain.

We fall: to feel the breeze.
It is a lesson, taught and learned.
No more afraid, but again the way is locked.
And yet, i beg the storm to come again.

About Commercials...

So, the funny thing about being in the entertainment industry (because i have to throw the net wide open to include all my friends, who would not necessarily be in theatre)... is when i watch commercials.

I'll just put it this way. Serious ad, serious music, something about medical bills leading to bankruptcy. And i was kinda into it (i pay attention to commercials now. ya know, to learn). it was all different faces, flashing one after another, narrating different parts of the story.

suddenly...

wtf? i think i know her.... -TiVo back up sound- yep! awesome! Hi Juliet!

sorta ruins the point of the commercial......

Gustav

to everyone in the New Orleanes area and all around....our thoughts are with you. there is nothign else to be said, and anyone who makes this political deserves to be run over by a bus.

Phelps Rules

i don't even have a quote. good freaking race....

Olympics

wow....just...wow.

Michael Phelps, man. I know everyone is writing about him, but omg. he won his /7th/ GOLD MEDAL!! tonight by 1/100 of a second. The coach of the man he beat put in a formal protest to the olypmic committee. Truely nailbiting.

Not to mention the relay earlier this week.

Seriously, people....watch tomorrow for Olympic and World history, with the potential of Phelps winning his 8th Gold in a single games, which would surpass the record.

The other race to watch tomorrow is going to be the 50m (thats one length of the pool...) Free, i think is the right category. Anyways, its Torres swimming, the 41 year old mother. You know what was awesome watching her tonight in the semi-finals? The girl who finished second was 25 freaking years younger...

I'll admit, part of me thinks this has to be doping. Its the sad state of affairs that a decade of steroid use in sports has left us. We continue to wonder, "well, is it really them? did they really work that hard? i bet they probably just took the 'roids." and i think thats sad. I yearn for the days when we can move past that distrustful impulse, and appreciate the games for what they are: a struggle for dominance that is built upon peace.

Thats what the Olympics is about. Not politics, or world-power, or elections, or humanitarian records. Its about the best athletes in each nation - who, by the way have /nothing/ to do with their respective nation's national or international policy - struggling against one another for the unmistakably human desire to WIN.

The One who Lives with Me hates the Olympics, which i don't understand. He calls them the Tony's of the sports world. Maybe he's just more cynical than I...

naw, that'll never happen. Even when my cynicism is tempered by romanticism.

"The Name that can be Named is not the Name. The Way that can be walked is not the Way." - Tao de Ching

The New Mummy and Bad Movies

Just saw, for fun, a really, really, really bad movie: The Mummy 3: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor.

omg. But hey, its in keeping with the China-ness.

The best part of the movie was the prologue part, the part without the god-awful actors! I mean, Brenden Fraiser did his best (i'll get to that phrasing in a bit), but Jet Li and Michelle Yeoh were the best in the movie. Oh, and Jon Hannah (Jonathan in the movie) too.

There were two big problems with the movie - and would you believe it? The plot isn't one of them. We'll start with the Script.

It was problem #1. The plot was ok, but the lines they gave them were just shit.

Now onto problem #2, the actors.

Rachiel Weis won an oscar, so didn't do the movie (or at least, thats the reason i assume), and got replaced by Maria Bello. She did her best, but her face was kinda odd, and her performance flat. I mean, flat. But she was nowhere NEAR as bad as Luke Ford (playing Alex) and Isabelle Leong (playing love interest and ninja, Ling). omg. awful. flat. terrible.

Here is my thing: there are talented actors out there. Actors that can take crap lines and, while not making them brilliant, making them less cringeworthy. And yeah, the lines were bad but John Hannah made these lines work! And Branden Fraiser to a lesser degree. There are actors out there that can make these lines work. So who the hell cast this movie?

Here's another question: do directors who make POS movies realise, when they are watching the final screening of their movie, that it sucks? or do they say, "wow, i made a great work of art"?

"The Condemned convict climbs the highest peak without fear" ~Chuang Tsu

Btw....

when i said China had invented a few things...just look:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_inventions

paper, compass, printing, gunpowder, the fork, tea, stirrup, rudder, /Resturaunt Menus!!/, Pi, Playing cards....dear lord, its thats like, 11 of many, many more.

public knowledge announcement, as it were =P

"Being a good listener spares one the burden of giving advice" - Lao Tzu

Well, we have the people...

That was the answer of the man who directed and created the Opening Ceremony for China and the Olympics. He was asked about the scope of the 15,000 performers in the ceremonies (no one repeated), and he replied, deadpan, "Well, we have the people."

Odds are, my next few posts are going to be China-centric and Olympic-centric. As anyone knows me know, I have a bit of an obsession with Chinese culture, history, and philosophies. Hell, I may be an athiest, but i consider myself spiritual, and if there is a spiritual philosophy to which i most adhere, it would be Taoism. I believe that there is much still in modern China that reflects a grander, more elegant time - something we in the West have moved on from.

Say what you will about China - and there is much to decry - it comes from their history and their culture. And never deny what they have given the world: Paper, Printing, the Magnetic Compass, to name a few. We may decry them for not being a real democracy...but of all the nations and cultures in the world, the one with the culture least suited to be a Democracy or a Republic would be China (and to a lesser extant, Japan).

So i'll probably be signing off the next few posts with a quote from Chinese philosophy.

"A virtuous life is lived as water - flowing easily; moving away from resistance or collision; always delicate, graceful, and calm." - Taoist saying

~M

heh..hehe...haHAHAHAHA

omg, i'm about dying of laughter a bit. this is just a little too much.

So, as of this morning, the RNC launched a vaguely clever anti-Barack site called BarackBook.com, which is meant to function as a Facebook app. Go ahead and click. Its a little funny, if a bit banal and asinine.

Here's the thing though. The story was up almost immediately on major news websites (i saw the story on Politico), and the youth of the internet descended upon the Facebook app's main page. Starting such topics as "Leaders Lead, this just sucks," "This site is lame," etc

and i even started one of my own. "By adding this application...." and my first post was something like "you're more tech-savy and computer litterate than McCain." Got a fair amount of comments as i argued with people. And i posted a few other places as well.

ok, but here's where it gets good. Remember, that site was launched this morning! As of this evening...well, not so much. They basically took it down!! HAHAHAHA....They disabled all sorts of non-RNC controlled posting. No threads, no wall posts, nada. Just an ability to review, and those ain't so pretty.

when i realised, i started laughing so hard, i was crying. The One that lives with me and his Girlfriend had no clue what was going on.

funny, funny stuff =)

~M

About that whole "liberal-bias" in the MSM...

Per Politico, regarding a story from the LA Times.

'graph:

The Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University, where researchers have tracked network news content for two decades, found that ABC, NBC and CBS were tougher on Obama than on Republican John McCain during the first six weeks of the general-election campaign.

...

when network news people ventured opinions in recent weeks, 28% of the statements were positive for Obama and 72% negative.

More coverage most certainly doesn't mean better coverage. Food for thought.

p to the s, anyone know how to do the LJ break thing in Blogspot? i've been looking all morning...I have several really, really long, fun things to post, and would like to put them under a post link...

Anyways...

~M

This is what i get for going away for a while....

I don't end up checking my blog. Anyways, someone asked for the relevant studies and articles regarding the effect of oil drilling on the price of gas.

Turns out my 10 cents was actually a bit generous...

First off, here is the abstract from a study, commissioned by Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), run thru the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress:

"The recent run-up in the price of crude oil has prompted new calls for the Federal government to increase its petroleum production by allowing exploration and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) along the northern coast of Alaska. While there is a strong incentive to provide much needed relief to American families who are currently struggling with high gasoline prices, analysis of ANWR’s projected contribution to crude oil markets suggests that relief will be neither substantial nor timely in its effect. Based on Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections of the effect of ANWR on crude oil prices, we estimate that opening up ANWR will reduce gasoline prices by just one cent, starting in 2018." (bolding mine)

And HERE is the link to the study itself. Now true, thats just ANWR. So what about the off-shore drilling itself?

That can be found HERE, a study regarding the impact of drilling on the so called "Lower 48 Federal Outer Continental Shelf" (fun name, huh?)
important 'graph:

"Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant. ... In 2030, the OCS access case projects a decrease of $0.13 in the average wellhead price of natural gas (2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet), a decrease of 250 billion cubic feet in imports of liquefied natural gas, and an increase of 360 billion cubic feet in natural gas consumption relative to the reference case projections. In addition, despite the increase in production from previously restricted areas after 2012, total natural gas production from the lower 48 OCS is projected generally to decline after 2020." (again, bolding mine)

What people miss when talking about drilling is that its not like we get to keep all the oil we drill. it goes into the international market, where it becomes the proverbial drop in the ocean. We're talking 20 years, and around 10 cents difference in the price of gas.

We're in a hole. And when you're in a hole with a shovel, the first thing you do is stop digging. (coincidence, actually, that the metaphor fits so well...)

So whoever you were who commented to my last post...there ya go.

~M

And Now there are 10 things....

I liked this article in Time...it was sort of a Freakenomics, unintended consequences look at the rising price of gas.

From my economic background, the one i found the most interesting was the story told in #2. The article doesn't quite say it in these terms, so let me explain a bit.

Over the past 50-100 years, growth in technology has changed economic models in many ways, put in one particularly important one: the cost of transporting a good became nil, negligible. There used to be expediency costs, or costs of storage on a boat so it could be shipped down river, paying the handler...all those things still exist today, but the efficiency of technology ensures that the price of transportation is so low, we don't factor it into our business and economic models.

But with $4 soon to be $5 probably soon to be $6 gas, this assumption will no longer hold true. It sucks, but its sorta fascinating that we have to regress to an earlier economic model.

oh! and i've been wanting to say this for a while...for all those idiots who say we need to drill in ANWAR or off-shore right now so we can lower gas price, quite whining and SHUT UP! at best, in a generation (the year 2028) if we opened all areas to drilling, the price of gas would be lowered by a whopping...10 cents. Meanwhile, we'd spend billions building the drilling apparatuses, prolong our addiciton to oil, and not do anything for short term relief.

And if you don't believe me, just ask, and i'll find the relavent articles and studies for you.

~M

Wall-E is like, awesome!

You know, one of these days, Pixar is going to make a bad movie.

but not today.

GO SEE WALL-E!!!!

It was...you know, people throw about the phrase "a movie has heart," but dear lord, does this movie have it in spades. Its funny and heartfelt, and so full of life that i swear to god, i kept forgetting i was watching an animated movie. Given the rise of CGI these days, that may not be as surprising, but still...to have an animated movie make you forget its animated?

But the problem is that, no matter what people say, you can't understand until you see it. I put this movie on the level of Finding Nemo. Granted, Nemo was funnier...but you always new it was a movie, ya know? it had a story, but it wasn't a story. the points of emotional realism that Nemo had were great...but they are things that Wall-E takes and runs with.

Like, Nemo had the story in mind, went for the humor, and the emotional moments were sort of there, almost thrown away towards the end of the movie (read: Dorie and her epiphany about her memory). But Wall-E has those same moments of poignancy from the beginning and keeps them without. Every moment is full, and true...and at the same time, still full of humor.

Never underestimate Pixar's ability to make a movie. or to make it funny. because dear lord is this movie funny.

i can't even count the number of times people in the audience clapped...or yelled out "wall...E!" in the middle of the movie at a good moment.

Thats one of the marks of a good movie. go see it. please =PPP

Benefits as a byproduct

I know, i know, I live in NYC, so i don't feel the full brunt of $4 gas. But i'll tell you this (as will any other economist or social science major): people react to incentives, which will mean either a) more drilling (boo! not the answer! only feeds the addiction), or b) new fuel technologies.

Turns out there are some other unintended benefits as well.

5 reasons to like $4 gas

damn...Friday the 13th sucks.

Flooding in Des Moines, and Tim Russert is dead at the age of 58

This is truely Evil!

i can't believe it....

---
"They paused the TV show, ran a little mini-commercial for some show that no one cares about, and then returned to the last two seconds of the segment before going to commercial. ... I'm sorry that the DVR is ruining your business model, but can you kick the bucket a little more gracefully?"
---

evil evil evil....

The smyler with the knyf under the cloke

No, thats not me being a terrible speller (though i am). Its Chaucer, The Knight's Tale.

One of the best games ever made? Its called Diplomacy.

and now the Other One in D.C. has found a website to play the game with friends. Sign-up is free and quick.

anyone care to play? =)

~M

Programming Note

Sasha, who heretofore has been referred to as The One in Manhattan, has moved, and shall henceforth be known as The One in Kentucky (even though she 'aint there yet...)

just so we're clear on my references =P

~M

Yes We Can

Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee for President.

yes we can.

Arrivederci, Rent

Lots of stuff to update about. Probably not going to get to all of it. But lets start with something sad:

Goodbye, Rent.

A bunch of us went and saw the show (really good seats!) on what was supposed to be closing night - before they extended the run to September. The One in Manhattan and I have been friends for a long time, and we've made a lot of other good, solid friends because of this show. IT was better that its been in months, btw, with strong performances all around (save for Collins...).

From screaming out "mooos" to joining in the clapping in "Seasons of Love" to closing our eyes, holding hands, and crying through "I'll Cover You (Reprise)," i doubt the night could have been better.

Heh, i remember seeing the show for the first time...Joey Fatone was Mark. And i dl'ed a few songs, and i remember playing "La Vie Bohem" for The One in Vassar and The One in D.C., back when we all lived in Newport. They liked it...but i don't think they realized how awesome it was till they saw it themselves.

Arrivederci, Rent.

No Day But Today.

~M

2nd Crane Collapses

I would like to preface this with "i am fine."

Second Crane Collapses in NYC @ 91st and 1st ave.

the noise of it woke me up at 8:08 am this morning, as the crane collapsed and hit the building next to mine.

1 casualty has been recorded as of now. Last time this happened (2 1/2 months ago) the head of the inspection agency resigned. who's going to get sacked this time?!

freaking cranes...

~M

I seem to be writing a lot about gay marriage...

but i'm not going to lie. I want a husband and kids someday. Straight men and straight women the world over refuse this sort of relationship, but i am kinda a romantic. As a side note, i find it funny that its usually the pursuit of a spouse and kids that leads one to conservative values, while that exact same search for me (for future years way off and all...) leads to liberal values.

anyways, not the point

two great articles/posts. This from the NYT about NY recognizing marriages made in other states, like Vermont or Cali.

oh, and speaking of Cali...turns out the people aren't so opposed to same-sex marriage as people might think. (yes, the post is from Andrew Sullivan. Again. I heart him, because he is smart) Yeah the innitiative is going to be on the ballot in November. But i don't think it will (and i pray to the God i don't believe in that it doesn't) pass. And, facinating and apropo to my other recent posts, acceptance of same-sex marriage is greater (read 2:1 in favor) in the younger generation, favored by more than 10 points in the middle generation, and opposed by high teen/low 20's in the 65+ crowd.

and people disagree with me when i say we are a more open and accepting generation....go GenY!!

the "liberal media" myth

This should be required reading for anyone who gets into arguments (as i do now online and used to in person with my roommate from freshmen and sophomore year) about the existence of a "Liberal" Media.

Background: Scott McClellan, the White House Press Secretary for many years, just published a harshly critical book about the administration's deliberate distortions of the truth in the run up to the Iraq War. Reviews for it abound online...go and find one.

RIP Dick Martin 1922-2008

I would say most people my age don't know who he is. And that's a shame. There was sketch comedy before SNL, and he and his comic partner, Dan Rowan, created "Rowan and Martin's Laugh-In." And omg was it funny. FYI its where Goldie Hawn got her start. The show also can boast being the first television entertainment program to have a sitting president appear on it (Nixon). Yeah, it was that popular.

It also boasted guest spots by the Beetles, the Monkees...

Here is a sampler. Thats Martin on the right. If you're bored, go around YouTube and watch some clips.

Another thing about a Marriage Amendment

I mentioned before "separate but equal," and how in my opinion that's exactly what civil unions are. There's something else i wanted to mention.

the Religious-Right in CA is attempting to gather signatures to put a measure on the November ballot. The measure would be to amend the CA state constitution to forbid gay marriage. Bush, Rove, et. al. tried to do similar things last election cycle, and succeeded in several states, though not the US Constitution itself.

Discrimination exists in our founding documents, that can't be denied. But most of it has been fixed.

Whats that you say? Discrimination in the Constitution? noooo!

Article 1, Section 2:
"...according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons." (bolding mine)

This, of course, was changed by the 14th amendment, but that took the civil war to happen. It was ratified in 1868.

I'm not sure exactly what my point is there, but i know i have one. Discrimination has no place in the laws of any society, and it certainly shouldn't be enshrined in any Constitution, be they Sate or Federal.

on another note

Gen X vs. Millenials (Gen Y).

Omg, i laughed so hard at this article i got looks in the office.

...nice wand =P

~M

Why i love my home state

They allow gay marriage.

Looks like i'l be moving back there eventually =P

A few things about the decision that i've run across. 60 years ago, the courts in CA were the first to strike down something called miscegenation laws, which outlawed interracial marriage. They've now taken similar steps with gay marriage.

This isn't" activist judges," as the Rove-right would call them. The CA legislature - which is, um, you know, democratically elected - has twice passed laws permitting gay marriage. Both times, the Governator vetoed them, citing the voter approved ban that the courts now overturned. He is supportive of gay rights, and has said that unless another such ban is passed (and the religious right is trying to put it on the ballot for November, attempting to put it in the CA state constitution) he will be happy to sign any such pro-gay marriage legislature in the future.

Somewhere out it the blogosphere, someone made a very good point. Sexual orientation is actually more inherent, immutable, and self-defining than gender, or perhaps even race. Its not a choice, its something that is.

Lastly, again from somewhere in the Internets, was a discussion about civil unions vs. marriage. I've always detested civil unions. It wreaks of "separate but equal." But lets be honest here, gay marriage isn't about religion, or marriage, or gay, or whatever. Its about love, and two people wanting to proclaim their love to each other and the world, and become "family." It is the declaration of the discovery of a soul mate, one of the most inscrutable and important moments in one's life.

And it should be available to all. And there is no way to deny it without implicitly saying that homosexual love is something less than heterosexual love.

I am so very happy to be from California.

~M

Apropos to Journalism

And also to my post yesterday about the study about The Daily Show/Colbert Report.

One of my main arguments for saying that they are journalists is the interview portion of the show. Stewart asked prepared, well-informed, and intelligent questions, with clear logic and a desire for an actual answer behind it.

Last night, he had on Douglas Feith, who was Undersecretary of Defense under Donald Rumsfeld. Feith has released a book about the administration 's internal and external discussions in the run-up to the Iraq war. Believe me, i watch the news (because i'm a bit of a junkie), and you don't usually see interviews like this. In fact, you rarely if ever do.

Watch HERE. And learn.

~M

I am Millennial, hear me....well, roar over the internet!

For those who know me, you know i'm not really a person who has an overabundance of pride in things. School spirit? "eh." College spirit? "we have sports teams? God i hate my school..." patriotic spirit? "have you seen the title of this blog?"

About the main things i take pride in are my friends and my creative stuff (shows, stories, etc).

But i've been having an awful lot of Generational Pride. Or what you can call Millennial Pride, because i realize just how cool our generation is.

Guess what? others are noticing. Thanks Obama.

I can't tell you the number of articles i've been reading about the generational gap that has appeared in national politics (consensus reading something like this: below 45? Obama. Above 65? Clinton/McCain.) . As a result of this sudden noticing of the Gen-Y'ers, more and more attention is being spent analyzing who we are.

For those who don't know, Gen-Y (aka Millenials) is roughly those born 1984/5 onward to the late 90's. We're inventive, and the first tech/internet savvy generation. Oh, and did i mention we lean to the Left (come on, i had to throw politics into this). We grew up under Clinton I, but came of age in the catastrophe that is Bush II.

Don't believe me? looky-looky (i got Hooky!)

If you want a good article, here's Bob Herbert from today's NYT Op-Ed section.

money quote:

--
“Millennials mostly reject the conservative viewpoint that government is the problem, and that free markets always produce the best results for society. Indeed, Millennials’ views are more progressive than those of other age groups today, and are more progressive than previous generations when they were younger.”
--

Anyways, just thought i'd say that we rock. Hooray for inclusive, progressiveness. Take that, Boomers!

2 great articles

I highly suggest reading these two. If you only have time for one, do the second.

First up, a short article about The Daily Show/The Colbert Report, and dissecting the news they disseminate...and coming to the conclusion that despite what the shows' hosts profess, they actually are journalists.

read HERE.

The second is a piece by NPR about two families, each with a boy who at an early age (read: 1 year old) began to identify as trans-gender (a boy believing he is a girl trapped in the wrong body, and vice-versa). The families take radically different approaches to the thearapy. Further proof that nature is not, by default, hetero-normative. (That last one was a shout out to the one at Vassar...)

vie Andrew Sullivan, read HERE.

enjoy!

~M

and we're live in...

Hey, i know its been forever. I almost forgot about this, until yesterday when my brother asked if i was going to be writing in it ever again. So I thought i might do just that =)

As i've said, this is a place for my thoughts, and my thoughts don't include my day-to-day life. Yes, i realize that contradiction. But i've fully embraced the inherent contradictions in living, so i'm ok with it. So in keeping with contradictions, lets describe myself a bit further.

Socailly: liberal (if you know me, you know this to be true), economically: a realist (you can't have an econ major and not want to laugh at policy wonks and all they get wrong, not to mention discussions about NAFTA or other free-trade agreements), with a peace-nik/diplomacy based foreign policy view. But that certainly doesn't mean i haven't learned the lessons of the "real world," because i throw Machiavelli-cynicism into my world view. what does that mean, exactly?

It means we should consider invading Burma.

(And its Burma, not Myanmar. The Junta renamed the country because they felt like it, and recognizing the name change means recognizing the power of the Junta.)

This is not to say that we're going to, or even if we are litterally able to muster enough force to do so. I'm just saying that its something that should be done.

The war in Iraq is just stupid, because we should be focusing on Afganistan. And i would usually say "but that aside," but i can't at this moment. Because we never should have invaded Iraq. Ever. Never ever ever never ever. Stupid to the Nth degree.

But Burma is inhearently different. Its own government is seizing the aid sent by the US, the UN, and other organizations and countries, and isn't giving it out to its own cyclone-raveged people. They refuse to grant foreign works visas so they can help the sick, wounded, or dead. Burma used to be one of the worlds largest exporters of rice, and now it can barely feed itself. This is the same country that beat and imprisioned the Monks last year who were protesting governemnt mandated food prices and gathering money for the poor.

Not even China, everyone's older brother in that part of the world, can persuade the Burmese junta to allow foreign aid. Without aid to help clean the destruction, the possibility of a devastating disease ripping thru that part of the world becomes very real.

But why invade? I mean, isn't like invading Iraq? Saddam was certainly repressive to his own people. First off, teh basic premise is different. The cliche of "welcomed as liberators" wasn't true in Iraq, but it has definate possibility in Burma...only it wouldn't be "liberators" it would be "thank god, Food!" When a governemtn harms its own people, in this new, world community, there is an obligation for us to help our fellow man.

But it will never happen, specifically because Iraq happened. The era of US interventionalism is on its death-bed, and it has G.W. Bush and all the neocons to thank for it. Look, US Interventionalism can be a good thing. But it can also be disasterous. Espeically because the same problems from Iraq would resurface, except in the place of Iran you'd have China. How do you make a governemnt in Asia without China having a major say? You can't.

But forceful intervention, to save lord knows how many lives, is something to be considered.

~M

Change is the Name of the Game

Ok, so its been a month. I've been busy! My show goes up in like, 10 days, i'm going on a retreat for it this weekend, not to mention that i was in Newport for a while.

But my life's boring (so it will be another post later). Lets get to the good stuff....politics!

I love being right, btw. I've been saying since, oh, August that people need to pay attention to Huckabee. And oh, wait, what? He won the Iowa caucuses (which are bs, but still) over a millionaire Romney by 9 points? Yeah, thats what i thought. Don't get me wrong, i don't agree with Huckabee. I think he's wrong about almost everything. But have you ever seen the man on a talk show - like Daily Show or Colbert? I want to say to him "I disagree with everything you stand for. ...But please, tell me more about what you think." He is, quite frankly, undeniably charismatic and well, likeable. And i tend to not like Republicans as a rule.

What do i think Huck & Chuck's (that would be Chuck Norris, btw) win means? Depends on New Hampshire, really. But a knee jerk reaction says that Romney has to have a stunning win, or he is over. With Romney weakened, McCain will be in good shape if he can beat Guliani in NH. And who the hell knows what Huckabee will place.

Don't get me wrong. I would love, love, if Huck got the Republican nomination. Because he could never, ever win. He's too regressive, too conservative, no matter how likable he is. It would be a Dem shoe in.

Now for the Democrats. Given how the last few weeks have gone, i'm not surprised that Clinton got 3rd (but thats misleading. There was less than half a percent difference between HRC and Edwards), and i'm not surprised that Obama won. But its still a little awesome in some ways, because Obama won by 8 points in a state that is 94% white. Here another interesting figure for you:

"Nearly 6 in 10 Democratic voters were first time Caucus goers, and 41 percent of them went to Obama." [From Politico.com]

In a year where caucus attendance among Democrats doubled, this is huge. Also, polls indicate that "Change" was the most important aspect of a candidate, and that it trumped "expierence." In this way, a vote for Obama is actually a correct one. He ain't no Baby Boomer - and i can rail on baby boomers for a long, long time, so i won't here. Suffice it to say that an Obama presidency will be less endowed with the virulent hatred that defines post-60's-Vietnam Baby Boomer politics.

Clinton's downfall has been that the Media dubbed her "the inevitable" for most of the year. And spinning a primary/caucus result is all about expectations. Now, with her loss in Iowa, expectations of her are in a reasonable place (where they were catastrophically high before). I sincerely hope she decides she doesn't have to go negative against Obama, because i believe that will only hurt her more. And everyone needs to remember, this one won't be decided until Super Tuesday (Feb. 5th), when a rather large chunk of the country will hold their Primaries all at the same time. And its entirely possible that it won't even be decided then.

But my point is that HRC is still viable on a national level...she just is being held back by the early states. Personally, i see it as Obama v. Clinton, with the edge going to Clinton (but we'll see if her national appeal is lessened after NH). I'm ignoring Edwards, who i don't care enough about to spend many words on.

Either way, i'd be happy with an Obama or Clinton Presidency, and less thrilled about an Edwards one. Just below Edwards would be McCain, then Guliani, and then after that i would shoot myself (not really, but the sentiment is there).